THE DEVELOPMENT of Adani's megamine could have a major impact on jobs and the economy of some of the most marginal seats in central and north Queensland where the election could be decided, according to The Australia Institute.
As protests against the mine, rail and port project led to about 20 activists blocking access to Adani's rail project in central Queensland yesterday, a TAI analysis, which used research from the global market intelligence firm Wood Mackenzie, found the massive coal project would have a significant overall impact on seven Queensland seats, four of which would have a positive impact and three negative.
Another five would have a mixed result from the mine.
Of the positively impacted seats, three were held by Labor and would be considered marginal. One was held by the LNP.
But TAI said the impact overall was likely to be negative because of the potential impact on other planned mines.
"It's construction at a time of shrinking world demand for coal means that exports from Adani can cannibalise existing exports and potential growth from other regions and, by extension, lead to fewer jobs or lower jobs in those regions,'' the report said.
But Adani has rubbished the assumptions in the report saying the vast majority of the coal from the Carmichael mine will be for the seven new power stations it is building in India so it is creating a new market and filling it without impacting any other mine.
The Queensland Resources Council chief executive Ian Macfarlane said his experience over the past decade showed that The Australia Institute was not a credible source of information.
A number of activists were arrested earlier this week when they chained themselves together in the foyer of Adani's Townsville office and others locked themselves to equipment at the rail construction sites near Belyando.
Mr Macfarlane said the activists were flaunting democracy by not accepting the result of multiple court cases and "were verging in anarchy''.
But TAI said that prevented other mines from meeting that demand that Adani was creating.
"The decision by Adani to use Townsville and Rockhampton as is its bases for fly-in, fly-out workforces could advantage those cities and the eight state electorates they contain.
"Six of those electorates are marginal and another has changed hands in both of the last two state elections.
"On the other hand, Mackay Gladstone and Rockhampton are already major FIFO bases and are strong candidates for future Bowen and Surat basin mines.''
It said there were three marginal state electorates in the Bowen and Surat coal basins which could be impacted by mines not being developed.
Positively impacted seats
- Mundingburra (ALP)
- Hinchinbrook (LNP)
- Townsville (ALP)
- Thuringowa (ALP)
Negatively impacted seats
- Whitsunday (LNP)
- Mackay (ALP)
- Gladstone (ALP)
- Burdekin (Independent)
- Mirani (ALP)
- Keppel (KAP)
- Hill (KAP formerly Dalrymple)
- Rockhampton (ALP)
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